a book

Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts

Name: Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts
Rating: 5 (24 reviews)
Author: Annie Duke
ISBN: 9780735216358

Annie Duke · 2018 · 276 pages

NATIONAL BESTSELLER • Poker champion turned business consultant Annie Duke teaches you how to get comfortable with uncertainty and make better decisions as a result in “the ultimate guide to thinking about risk” (Charles Duhigg, author of The Power of Habit).

“A big favorite among investors these days.”—The New York Times

“Outstanding.”—Jason Zweig, The Wall Street Journal

In Super Bowl XLIX, Seahawks coach Pete Carroll made one of the most controversial calls in football history: With 26 seconds remaining, and trailing by four at the Patriots' one-yard line, he called for a pass instead of a hand off to his star running back. The pass was intercepted and the Seahawks lost. Critics called it the dumbest play in history. But was the call really that bad? Or did Carroll actually make a great move that was ruined by bad luck?

Even the best decision doesn't yield the best outcome every time. There's always an element of luck that you can't control, and there is always information that is hidden from view. So the key to long-term success (and avoiding worrying yourself to death) is to think in bets: How sure am I? What are the possible ways things could turn out? What decision has the highest odds of success? Did I land in the unlucky 10% on the strategy that works 90% of the time? Or is my success attributable to dumb luck rather than great decision making?

Annie Duke, a former World Series of Poker champion turned business consultant, draws on examples from business, sports, politics, and (of course) poker to share tools anyone can use to embrace uncertainty and make better decisions. For most people, it's difficult to say "I'm not sure" in a world that values and, even, rewards the appearance of certainty. But professional poker players are comfortable with the fact that great decisions don't always lead to great outcomes and bad decisions don't always lead to bad outcomes.

By shifting your thinking from a need for certainty to a goal of accurately assessing what you know and what you don't, you'll be less vulnerable to reactive emotions, knee-jerk biases, and destructive habits in your decision making. You'll become more confident, calm, compassionate and successful in the long run.

recommended by 24 people

sourced from public statements

Seth Godin
“The first chapter alone will change your life.”↗
Daniel Pink
“"2. Thinking in Bets by Annie Duke Bad outcomes ≠ bad decisions. This book taught me to judge decisions by the process, not the result. Think in probabilities. Get comfortable with uncertainty."”↗
Jason Fried
“@philreynolds @AnnieDuke I have read Thinking in Bets. Really enjoyed that part especially. Looking for a book with dozens of examples like that, given various contexts.”↗
Max Levchin
“This book definitely falls in the category I loosely refer to as, “self-help,” which I typically skim more than dive into, but I read this book all the way through because I found the premise so intriguing.”↗
Liv Boeree
“@scott_seiver @AnnieDuke Because (in this order): a) the book is really good and I believe it is a net positive for the world if people read it and b) I have heard both sides of the story unlike almost everyone else which, with all due respect Scott, you haven’t.”↗
Peep Laja
“Separate decisions from outcomes. A good decision might still end in an undesirable outcome, and a bad decision might work out great. This was a massive insight from the book "Thinking in bets". It changed my thinking about decision-making.”↗
Greg Sankey
“I just read QUIT: The Power Of Knowing When To Walk Away by @AnnieDuke. This is the second @AnnieDuke book for me…the first was THINKING IN BETS an ENORMOUSLY helpful book during 2020 COVID decision-making! “Contrary to popular belief, winners quit a lot. That’s how they win.””↗
Alan Eyre
“A great book!”↗
Neeraj Marathe
“#todaysgoodread Superb book”↗
Mark W. Yusko
“If you haven’t bought @AnnieDuke’s book yet, what are you waiting for?! Heard her speak twice last week in Chapel Hill and they were simply two of best talks on Decision Making, Discipline and Strategy I have ever heard.”↗
Marc Andreessen
Derek Sivers
Michael Mauboussin
Daniel Kahneman
Howard Marks
Mike Maples, Jr.
Mark Manson
Edouard Mathieu
Ana Fabrega
Julian Shapiro
Mike Cannon-Brookes
Danny Miranda
Akshay M
Nicholas C. Zakas